Stock Market

Even as the economy sheds jobs at an alarming rate, some economists say the worst may be over for consumer spending.

That doesn’t mean a return to the shop-till-you-drop, borrow-like-no-tomorrow days of just two years ago, but it may represent a stabilization in one key area of the economy.

“We had a shock to the system from last September,” says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, referring to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. “Consumers put away their credit cards. As we get past the shock, they will start spending. There's pent up demand. Whether it is long lasting is another story.”

Rupkey is hardly among the minority in thinking that way, and though that assessment may sound somewhat tentative, it has some historical precedence.

Consumer spending bounced back after other major national shocks, such as the terror attacks of 2001 and the stock market crash of 1987.

Recent economic data, though limited, may also support that expectation. Retail sales rose 1.0 percent in January. Consumer spending and income also rose in January, up 0.6 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Wal-Mart Stores’ [WMT 48.91 -0.84 (-1.69%) ] 5.1 percent same-store sales gain in February also buoyed up some hope.