Stock Market

Wall Street retreats, with the Dow giving up the 10,000 level as the dollar firms and energy stocks fall. Strong results from Microsoft and Amazon boost those stocks.

Chinese stocks fell sharply on Monday as nervousness about upcoming economic data caused investors to take profits in a wide range of financial and industrial blue chips that led the market up last week. The Shanghai Composite Index, which gained 5.29 percent last week, ended Monday down 3.39 percent at 2,118.748 points in active trade, just off the days low of 2,116.453.

A market bottom is nowhere in sight and safety of investment still beats quality as a choice for investors, as markets remain extremely volatile, Nick Parsons, head of strategy at nabCapital Markets told CNBC.

"It's hard to see the bottom from here," Parsons said, as Citigroup's [C 1.03 0.01 (+0.98%) ] share price fell below $1 and heavyweights General Motors [GM 1.45 -0.41 (-22.04%) ] and General Electric (CNBC's parent company) [GE 7.06 0.40 (+6.01%) ] was dragged sharply lower. "It's hard to see quality as a defensive play right now."

"There's nothing wrong with making zero on your money when prices are falling. You're hero with zero right now," he added.

General Motor's shares are now less that what it would cost to buy a gallon of gas ($4), and Citigroup's share price has fallen below $1, making it more expensive to withdraw money from one of the bank's ATM than to own one of its shares.

"With some of these zombie-like companies, the living dead as it were, on government support, are they still going to be maintained in the index and as long as they are, then are investors willing to buy a zombie index? I think it is very doubtful that investors are going to return in droves at anytime soon," Parsons said on "Worldwide Exchange".

"The thing we need here is time. Time is a great healer and we often find at market bottoms we get this sense of panic and capitulation," he added.

Investors should stop buying stocks as they keep going down, and looking for the big turnaround in the markets so far has resulted in big losses, according to Parsons, who expects another round of corporate earnings downgrades and corporate bankruptcies.

"My fear here is that we don't get that sense of panic and capitulation. We just get now a rather dull acceptance that this is where we're going to be and this is where we're going to be for some time," he said.

"So unless we start to see another round of investors saying 'look, I'm giving up in this, let me get out of the exits, sell at any price.' Unless we see that, then we're probably just going to carry on grinding lower because there's simply no incentive to buy," Parsons added.

Picking a stock market bottom during the past year of mayhem has been like playing a game where nobody ever wins.

Some of the smartest minds on both Wall Street and Washington have tried numerous times to identify an ultimate low for stocks and have failed—in some cases miserably.

The bookend collapses of both Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers served in the minds of some as critical points of capitulation. For others, the "bottom" was election-related. Still others tied their bottom calls to various legislative developments.

So far such pronouncements have had one thing in common: They have all been wrong.

But how could so many people have misread the market so dramatically?

"Smart people tend to look at history, and history would have mitigated against such a decline," says Uri Landesman, head of global growth strategies at ING Investment Management in New York. "People felt various support levels would hold. With every support level collapsing, the confidence that the next level will hold wanes."

With the Dow hovering in the 6,500 range some experts are again looking for a bottom.

But consider some events of the past year:

* 2008 kicks off with legendary prognosticator Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs calling for a 14,750 Dow.
* As stocks struggle through the early part of the year, many analysts think the March 17 demise of Bear signals the turning point in the bear market. The Dow closes at 11,972 and a subsequent CNBC.com poll finds more than one-third of respondents embracing the "Bear Stearns bottom."
* On June 20, Merrill Lynch analyst Ed Najarian says bank stocks are in "capitulation mode" suggesting that a full-scale selloff was in the works, well before the worst of the carnage in financials. The Dow closes at 11,842.
* July 8 sees market strategist Byron Wien say the market is in the process of bottoming and will be stronger by year's end. The Dow is at 11,225, a number that looks staggering now. A week previous, CNBC.com asks readers in a poll whether the Dow will finish the year at 10,000, 12,000 or 14,000.
* On Sept. 23, eight days after Lehman's fall, BlackRock's Bob Doll says the worst may be over for the market and signs of capitulation are appearing. The Dow is at 11,015.
* On Oct. 10, Art Hogan of Jefferies calls the renowned "Hogan Bottom" on CNBC. The Dow closes at 8,451 following a stunningly volatile day of trading. See the video on the next page of Hogan's original call of the market bottom.
* On Nov. 11 Doll says the "market is going to take time to make a bottom. It's going to be over a period of months." The Dow teeters at 8,854 and is just four days away from making a temporary bottom that lasts until Feb. 19.

And there are more—plenty more—where those came from.

Yes, it's easy to pick on those who saw a bottom coming and were wrong, but the truth is that only a handful of experts envisioned the depth of the damage, and almost none anticipated the violent reactions the market would have when the government tried to get involved.

"The economy has continued deteriorating, whereas most people, myself included, had expected it to start stabilizing by now," says Gary Flam, portfolio manger at Bel Air Investment Advisors in Los Angeles. "Given there's no stabilization in the economy, people don't know where earnings are going to go. It's a huge moving target as to what you are using to stay stocks are cheap."